Science and math in arts (statistics part 2)

Some of the problems with statistics:

• It is always lagging behind. Trend setters will be the 1 in a 100 until that approach becomes popular. I am sure that when grappling first came in, a lot of the stand-up fighters thinks “who in their right mind will fight on the floor”. However, as past history showed, it took quite a few years to prove that it is a viable method. Furthermore, it took the strikers quite a few years to adapt.
• You may not even be collecting the relevant data – for example, are there different types of strikers? are there specific things that they did really well making them ‘different’ than the generic class.
• The fact that something works 99% of the time cannot guarantee that you are not the only 1 in a 100. Knowing WHY something works and the circumstances under which a strategy/technique works is essential. Detecting assumption errors and the ability to adapt is key to survival.
• Statistics of “one” or too small a sample is not valid. You need the numbers to support/disprove anything.

However, on the plus side:

• It is much better than arguing “he says/she says” or “once-upon-a-time”. Too often, traditionalist quote how they were taught or in the ancient scripts instead of thinking of their art as a living breathing thing.
• It gets you to think logically and scientifically. Having the first set of stats will prompt you to ask more. In fact, it is the start of a quest for a deeper refinement of knowledge.
• You are aware of the success rate of certain strategies and approaches and you plan accordingly improving your odds. However, that should stop you from using something that is seemingly ‘stupid’ to create an element of surprise.

Ultimately, statistics is only a tool. Each tool has its place. Having the right attitude, training the eye to see beyond what is obvious and willingness to experiment and try with a group of supportive team will ultimately give you the competitive advantage.